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1. type solution or handwrite it and upload a scan of it. Make sure that this pa
1. type solution or handwrite it and upload a scan of it. Make sure that this page is the first page of your file and fill the information in the given table.
2. solve this assignment using MINITAB. A MS Word file is to be prepared, where you present the solutions and conclusions you obtained through solving this assignment on MINITAB.
3. submit TWO files: The MINITAB project file with the solution, and a report written on MS Word. The files should have proper formatting and labeling.
4. Show all the relevant DETAILS of your solutions.
Q1: Southdown, Inc., the nation’s third largest cement producer, is pushing ahead with a waste fuel burning program. The cost for Southdown will total about $37 million. For this reason, it is extremely important for the company to have an accurate forecast of revenues for the first quarter of 2000. The data are presented in the table next page.
i. Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of .4 and an initial value of 77.4 to forecast the quarterly revenues for the first quarter of 2000.
ii. Now use a smoothing constant of .6 and an initial value of 77.4 to forecast the quarterly revenues for the first quarter of 2000.
iii. Which smoothing constant provides the better forecast?
iv. Refer to part iii. Examine the residual autocorrelations. Are you happy with simple
exponential smoothing for this example? Explain.
v. Now apply double exponential smoothing using the optimal ARIMA constants.
vi. Examine the residual autocorrelations. Are you happy with double exponential smoothing for this example? Explain.
vii. Finally, apply winter’s method using a smoothing constant of 0.4, a trend constant of 0.1, and a seasonality constant of 0.3.
viii. Examine the residual autocorrelations. Are you happy with Winter’s method for this example? Explain.
ix. Which of the methods applied gives the best fit? Explain.
see attached file : DATA and question in it.
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